USD/KZT Exchange Rate Analysis and Forecast

As of 03:30 p.m., the weighted average USD/KZT exchange rate stood at KZT 518.31, largely driven by the market’s excessive reaction to external economic developments. This dynamics aligns more closely with the pessimistic forecast scenario. An additional negative factor contributing to tenge depreciation is the decline in Brent crude oil prices to $63 per barrel.

The Analytics and Research Department of JSC BCC Invest (hereinafter BCC Invest), as part of its monthly monitoring and forecasting of Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic indicators, tracks the impact of both external and internal factors on the national economy.

According to the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan (hereinafter the NB), the average exchange rate in March 2025 was 497.99 KZT per USD. As compared to January 2025, the exchange rate strengthened by 26,68 тенге or 5,1%.

Chart. Updated Exchange Rate Dynamics Forecast for a 12-month horizon

According to the updated baseline scenario, a gradual strengthening of the average monthly exchange rate is expected over the next two months, followed by a weakening toward a peak value at the end of the year with subsequent strengthening. The average monthly exchange rate is projected to reach KZT 497.4 in April and KZT 492.9 in May 2025. In December 2025, the exchange rate is expected to be 535.2 KZT per USD. Over the 12-month forecast horizon, the average monthly exchange rate is expected to be 525.3 KZT per USD (in March 2026).

Table. Exchange Rate Forecasting Results by Scenarios

Source: BCC Invest analysis

The exchange rate will be supported through a set of measures, including foreign exchange interventions by the National Bank and the use of government reserves. Utilization of funds from the National Fund (hereinafter the NF) may play a key role in this process). According to the Law on the Republican Budget for 2025–2027, total planned utilization of the NF resources this year amounts to KZT 5.25 trillion, of which KZT 2 trillion is a guaranteed transfer and KZT 3.25 trillion is a targeted transfer.

Chart. NF Transfer and Average Annual Exchange Rate Dynamics

According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan (hereinafter the MF), as of 1 March 2025, the amount of transfers has already totaled KZT 1.0 trillion, where KZT 800 billion is a guaranteed transfer and KZT 200 billion is a targeted transfer. In other words, 19.0% of the planned transfers have already been realized with 40% as the guaranteed transfer and 6.2% as the targeted transfer.

According to the National Bank’s information statement on the foreign exchange market, it is planned to sell foreign currency from the NF in April 2025 in the amount ranging from USD 950 million to USD 1.050 million.

According to the historical trend, a slight strengthening of the exchange rate is expected in May, driven by seasonal factors. The national currency tends to appreciate at the beginning of the year (February–March), mainly due to tax payments. Overall, seasonal strengthening of the national currency is observed up to May, followed by a subsequent depreciation.

Chart. USD/KZT Exchange Rate Dynamics since the beginning of 2019

When analyzing the relative change in the exchange rate dynamics compared to the beginning of each month, the exchange rate appreciates by 1.1% on average in May over the analyzed 6 years.

Table. Average Exchange Rate Appreciation in  May each year

Source: the NBRK data, BCC Invest analysis

Thus, the proposed exchange rate forecast also takes into account the appreciation of the national currency in May 2025, followed by a weakening until the end of the year. One of the reasons for further depreciation of the national currency is the increased demand for foreign currency from economic agents, as well as obligations to repay debts to external agents.

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